Macro

Macro

The indicators markets watch, from central banks and bond yields to inflation, growth, jobs, equities and currencies, each with its latest reading and its full history, updated every day.

S&P 500 · Fractal structure

Price, log scale 21-day volatility, calm → stressed

How the picture is made

How the picture is made Four steps from the Mandelbrot set to the S&P 500
  1. 01

    The set

    Each pixel is a complex number cc. Starting from zero, iterate z→z2+cz \to z^2 + c: inside the set the orbit stays bounded, outside it escapes, and the colour says how fast. The camera heads for the ringed point.

  2. 02

    The zoom runs on trading time

    The camera advances with cumulative realised variance, not with the calendar (dashed): calm years barely move it, crises make it jump. 19 October 1987 alone is 4% of the clock since 1985.

  3. 03

    Colour is volatility

    Each day’s 21-day volatility, ranked against the whole history: blue when markets are calm, magenta and orange under stress. The same strip runs under the chart above.

  4. 04

    Every scale looks alike

    After the last close the window shrinks to the last 10 trading days while the zoom grows by the same factor. Prices are rescaled by wHw^H, where ww is the window’s length and HH = 0.5 is estimated from the index, so every window looks equally rough.

The set is computed live in the browser, zooming towards the Misiurewicz point c≈−0.77568+0.13647 ic \approx -0.77568 + 0.13647\,i down to ×1010. The S&P 500 is not a fractal in this sense: what the two share is structure across scales. Data: S&P 500 daily closes, Yahoo Finance (ticker ^GSPC).

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